In my first post on this blog I made a couple of question:
Is there real evidence of an effect of climate change in mortality and morbidity? If so, where is it affecting?
After some research, I think that there is evidence of it and so far the effect seems to be minor, but I am not sure about the future.
It is expected an important increase in the global temperature unless some action is taken, the models presented in IPCC 2013 show a potential rise of around 4°C by the end of 21st century in respect to the present situation (average 1986-2005).
What if we take the preindustrial situation that has been set as reference for CO2 concentration level, as reference?
Using the facilities provided by KNMI Climate Explorer and setting as reference the period 1886-1905, we get
In other words, with the already observed increase we are facing effects in mortality and morbidity what can we expect of an even greater one? No sure, but I presume it is not a linear response.
The effects seem to be worse in poor areas where there is no economic capacity for facing and mitigating them. For instance, heat waves can be faced with appropriate technology, as explained: with special clothe, transportable shadow devices, air conditioning, in-situ working conditions, and so on, but this alternative won´t necessarily be available in case without enough financial support.
The same is valid for the case of illnesses, I exposed the case of malaria and showed that with appropriate technology and permanent control it is possible to face it, but all that requires investment, financing, for appropriate medicine, special nets, border control, chemicals and general medicine.
My perception is in line with a report of WHO estimating the number of extra death for the years 2030 and 2050 around the world, where the number of casualties due to climate change is high, on the other hand wealthy zones are less affected but for heat waves, showing that the ability to face, mitigate and overcome the problem is directly related to economic capacity.
The report also makes mention to the inequality in the health effects, specifically they say:
“Climate change is projected to have substantial adverse effects on human health that will be distributed unequally within and between populations” as shown in the next figure taken from the report.
About morbidity, I have not found yet a study that can corroborate my perception, but it seems logic that it would be in line with mortality, meaning the same principle of the wealthier the area the better possibilities for facing climate change or in general any change.
In relation to illnesses and as to be mentioned briefly some other aspect of health to consider is mental stability.
There is an article by Willox et al. related to the effects of climate change on mental health of people living in the Circumpolar North. According to their own words:
“Indigenous people living in the Circumpolar North rely, to varying degrees, on the natural environment and the resources it provides for their lifestyle and livelihoods. As a consequence, these Northern Indigenous peoples may be more sensitive to global climate change, which has implications for food security, cultural practices, and health and well-being”
The article is not conclusive but open a space to think about the issue. The authors explain a number of difficulties related to a proper evaluation of the topic, either for cultural reasons (definition of a mentally health behavior can change according to the cultural group) or data availability. On the other hand, the Lancet commission in it Panel 5, talked about this topic, a summary of their own in presented here below.
According to WHO mental health is a state of well-being in which every person can develop its potential and deal with normal everyday problems. I suggest to read the 10 facts about mental health there are impressive figures like 20% of children and adolescent in the world have mental problems or disorders.
About solastalgia that is mentioned by Lancet, Albrecht et al. explaining that “….solastalgia is the distress that is produced by environmental change impacting on people while they are directly connected to their home environment.” What perfectly apply to what has been seen as consequence of climate change, for instance, see Willox article. In an article by Portier et al. of 2013 they say that “A variety of psychological impacts can be associated with extreme weather and other climate related events. There has been significant research conducted depicting ways in which extreme weather events can lead to mental health disorders associated with loss, social disruption and displacement, as well as cumulative effects from repeated exposure to natural disasters.”
In this sense I emphasize the concept of loss, the losing of environment, property, friends, and so on.
